Beyond Occident

Some of you may have seen the Muslim Demographics video that has been circulating on Youtube and through email. The message of the video is basically that the birth rates of the Western European nations are in decline and are no longer high enough to sustain their culture. At the same time Muslim birthrates in Europe, who are entering due to immigration, are skyrocketing. The video then boldly states that during this century, Western Europe will transition to Muslim nations, including Islamic republics.

The information that the video uses to support its claims are birthrates and immigration numbers of Europe, Canada and the United States. The figures quoted are shocking and, as it turns out, often either made up or grossly exaggerated. The BBC put together a video which examines the numbers of the Muslim Demographics video and displays the inaccuracies and fabrications of the video. You can watch it on the BBC website.

It is true that Muslim population numbers are increasing throughout Western Europe. However, the results won’t be as dramatic as the Muslim Demographics video suggests. Since Western European nations are giving citizenship to many Muslims who immigrated into Europe, the most tangible impact may be that Europe may begin to reevaluate and shift its position on the Israeli/Palestinian conflict due to the influence of the Muslim voters.

But back to birth rates. This video, and some other articles, imply that Muslims in particular have high birth rates compared to other groups. Afghanistan, Niger and Yemen are often listed as examples of Muslim majority countries that have extremely high birth rates. According to 2006 World Health Organization (WHO) statistics, these three countries have total fertility rates (per woman) of 7.2, 7.3 and 5.6 respectively. However, this argument denies the variance and downward trend found throughout “Muslim majority” nations. Here are some total fertility rates for some other nations: Egypt (3.0), Iran (2.0), Syria (3.2), Morocco (2.4) and Libya (2.8).  The birth rates throughout Muslim majority countries have also been in decline for some time. According to WHO, in 1990 the total fertility rate for Iran was 5.0, Egypt 4.4, Yemen 8.1, Morocco 4.0, Afghanistan 8.0 and Libya 4.8.

Birth rates are tricky to project into the future. Traditionally, birth rates have been very high in developing and the poorest nations. At the same time, once a nation is ‘developed’, the birth rate falls. I think this is the idea behind the Muslim Demographics video. However, when people immigrate from a poor country to a richer country, they tend to trend towards the national birth rate of their new home. High birth rates are probably a strategy of survival in developing nations, where the life expectancy is low (42.0 in Afghanistan for example) and many children due not survive to adulthood because of war/disease/malnutrition. WHO statistics show that the under 5 mortality rate (probability of dying by age 5 per 1000 live births) is very high for developing nations (example: Niger 253, compared to USA at 8.0).

The newest data shows that birth rates for developed nations is rising while developing nations is actually shrinking, with the exception of sub-Saharan Africa. Interestingly, the population of both Christians and Muslims in sub-Saharan will increase sharply. As this article points out, the stress of huge population increases on local environmental systems will possibly lead to future Rwanda and Darfur-like conflicts since these nations do not have the infrastructure and institutions in place to handle their current population numbers, so how will they support such an increase?

Contrary to some views, there is no cultural or religious significance for Muslims to have high fertility rates. Birth rates are a result of historical, social and economic patterns and are in a constant state of flux. There is a great deal of variance in projections of population growth and birth rates (as the BBC video states, it is an “inexact science”), and anyone can take demographic numbers, twist them and come out with a conclusion for the future that supports their narrative.